The Economy Could Take 3 Paths, JP Morgan Says. Only One Is a Soft Landing.

The Economy Could Take 3 Paths, JP Morgan Says.  Only One Is a Soft Landing.

Text size “The global economy faces three doors at midyear,” JP Morgan economists say. Dreamtime Ever since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates, officials at the central bank have hoped to rein in inflation without triggering a recession, achieving a so-called soft landing for the economy. But as inflation persists at 40-year highs, investors … Read more

Expect the stock market to be driven ‘more by earnings than the macro,’ says Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Expect the stock market to be driven ‘more by earnings than the macro,’ says Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Earnings season will be a key test for the stock market after the S&P 500 last week closed out its worst half-year performance since 1970, said strategists from Morgan Stanley. The direction of stocks going forward will be mostly tied to second-quarter earnings as interest rate hikes and surging inflation reflect the growth slowdown more … Read more

Dow Dives as Recession Fears Mount, Euro Slumps | Economy

Dow Dives as Recession Fears Mount, Euro Slumps |  Economy

Markets entered the second half of the year Tuesday with an opening sell-off that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points by mid-morning. That dashed hopes that the rally at the end of last week might signal a turn in investors’ fortunes following a first half that had market benchmarks suffering … Read more

AUD/JPY marches beyond 93.00 with eyes on full markets, RBA

AUD/JPY marches beyond 93.00 with eyes on full markets, RBA

AUD/JPY holds onto the week-start rebound from a five-week low. Off in the US allowed bears to take a breather even if the sentiment remains sluggish. Downbeat yields, fears of economic recession could favor sellers but RBA’s likely 05 bps rate hike appears positive catalyst. China Caixin Services PMI, risk factors will be important too. … Read more

With prices skirting a 17-month low, Dr Copper’s prognosis about the global economy is downbeat

With prices skirting a 17-month low, Dr Copper’s prognosis about the global economy is downbeat

Dr Copper has graded the global economy, and noted: “must do better.” The red metal is wryly considered by commodity watchers to hold a Ph.D in economics, because its use in a range of sectors, including home appliances, power generation and cars, helps it predict the trajectory of global growth. So, copper’s price initial drop … Read more

Opinion: The Federal Reserve can’t even get the direction of the economy right

Opinion: The Federal Reserve can’t even get the direction of the economy right

A year ago, the Federal Reserve turned a blind eye to the gathering storm of inflation. Now the Fed is missing another big problem: A rapidly slowing economy. In an effort to appear strong on inflation, the central bank can’t recognize that the economy is already downshifting to a slower growth rate. If it doesn’t … Read more

Recession fears are slamming the stock market. This GDP tracker explains why.

Recession fears are slamming the stock market.  This GDP tracker explains why.

Fears of a sharp slowdown are getting the blame for the stock market’s renewed slide while also driving a retreat in Treasury yields. A look at a regional Fed bank’s closely followed economic-growth indicator may justify investor jitters, said a top Wall Street researcher. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model on Friday forecast … Read more

Trump’s Billionaire Neighbor Warns US Economy Is In An “Omnibuble”

Trump’s Billionaire Neighbor Warns US Economy Is In An “Omnibuble”

Jeff Greene The Palm Beach Post/Zuma Press/Alamy Jeff Greene, who made his first fortune shorting subprime mortgages during the Great Recession, sees trouble ahead for real estate and no relief for crypto or tech stocks. By Giacomo Tognini DDuring the last major recession from 2007 to 2009, a little-known entrepreneur named Jeff Greene made billions … Read more

New era of inflation will bedevil central banks and bond markets

New era of inflation will bedevil central banks and bond markets

Structural changes – hyper-globalization, global demographic shifts, technological changes and decline in labor’s bargaining power – unleashed disinflationary forces that kept price pressures largely subdued for much of the first two decades of this century. But the pandemic shock and other recent developments suggest that we may now have entered a new inflationary era, one … Read more

The Fed’s hawkish policies risk making economy’s doom loop worse

The Fed’s hawkish policies risk making economy’s doom loop worse

As the stock market closes out its worst half since 1970, the Federal Reserve has shifted to a hawkish monetary-policy stance to fight inflation. Not only is the Fed raising its policy interest rate in 75 basis-point steps rather than the more normal 25. It is also on the path to withdrawing market liquidity by … Read more