Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again

Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again

The bond market is flashing a warning that the economy may be falling or already has fallen into recession, according to one closely watched measure. Market pros watch the spread on the Treasury yield curve, or the difference between the longer duration Treasury yields and shorter duration yields. Normally, longer duration yields, like the yield … Read more

To understand this vile market, study the dot-com crash of 2000

To understand this vile market, study the dot-com crash of 2000

Forty years is an awfully long time. Yet that’s how much time has passed since we have had an abomination like this first half of the year. Almost everything went down. Your stocks went down. Your bonds went down. Your house went down. Your crypto went down. The only thing that didn’t go down were … Read more

May retail, industrial production, fixed asset investment

May retail, industrial production, fixed asset investment

BEIJING — China released economic data for May that topped muted expectations for a month hampered by Covid controls. Industrial production rose mildly by 0.7% in May from a year ago, versus an expected 0.7% drop, according to analysts polled by Reuters. In April, industrial production unexpectedly fell, down by 2.9% year-on-year. Retail sales fell … Read more

Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows the US economy is likely in a recession

Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows the US economy is likely in a recession

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reacts as he testifies before a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the “Seminnual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress”, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, US, June 22, 2022. Elizabeth Frantz | Reuters A Federal Reserve tracker of economic growth is pointing to an increased chance … Read more

Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan tankan, currencies, oil

Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan tankan, currencies, oil

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific markets rose on the first day of the new quarter as investors wait for the results of a private survey on Chinese factory activity. The Nikkei 225 in Japan gained 0.37%, and the Topix rose 0.42%, before paring some gains. Sentiment at Japan’s large manufacturers exported in the April-to-June period, according to … Read more

Wall Street, consumer confidence, currencies and oil

Wall Street, consumer confidence, currencies and oil

I’m still optimism on a 12-month view, but for the next three or four months, I think there’s more downside Shane Oliver Chief Economist, AMP Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was about 1% lower. Retail sales in Australia rose 0.9% in May compared to April, the same increase in April from March. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific … Read more

Abysmal manufacturing surveys are the latest signs of a major economic slowdown

Abysmal manufacturing surveys are the latest signs of a major economic slowdown

Dismal regional manufacturing readings are sounding alarm bells that business activity is slowing down heading into the summer. The latest bad news came Monday out of Texas, where the Dallas Federal Reserve’s outlook survey for the sector in June pointed to a substantial level of contraction fueled by a plunge in the growth rate of … Read more

Top Wall Street analysts say buy stocks like Broadcom & Adobe

Top Wall Street analysts say buy stocks like Broadcom & Adobe

A sign on the campus of offices chipmaker Broadcom Ltd is shown in Irvine, California. Mike Blake | Reuters As the first half of 2022 winds down, investors can be certain of at least one thing: This year will likely continue to be difficult. Economic risk is top of mind for investors, as investment banks … Read more

Mainland Chinese stocks bounce back even as most Asia markets continue to slide

Mainland Chinese stocks bounce back even as most Asia markets continue to slide

SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific mostly tumbled on Tuesday after the S&P 500 fell overnight and closed in bear market territory, but mainland Chinese stocks bucked the overall regional trend to recover from earlier losses. The Shanghai Composite closed 1.02% higher at 3,288.91 while the Shenzhen Component climbed 0.204% to about 12,023.79. In Hong Kong, … Read more

recession fears, oil prices, currencies

recession fears, oil prices, currencies

SINGAPORE — Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mixed on Thursday as investors continued to monitor recession concerns. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose nearly 1%, and the Hang Seng Tech index gained 1.42%. Mainland Chinese markets struggled for direction initially, but last traded higher. The Shanghai Composite was up 0.58%, and the Shenzhen Component was … Read more