For those that have been reading me lately, you would know that I have been taking a lot more time off for health reasons, as I have been quite overworked and have been traveling away from the office. While I have been continually providing my analysis in my services even while I have been traveling, I simply have not had the time or desire to discuss or argue publicly in the comments section to articles. So, I decided to pen this article to give you a quick update as to my general views on the various markets I have discussed publicly in the past.
While I correctly warned that “in early 2022, we will see the largest pullback in the market that we have seen since the bottom struck in March of 2020,” I clearly did not expect the market to drop this deeply. To that extent, this is likely the biggest miss in a primary prognostication that I have experienced since I opened ElliottWaveTrader almost 11 years ago. As I have said, I wish I could be right all the time, but I am human and will never be right 100% of the time. Those that have read my analysis through the years know quite well of our long-term accuracy, but this was clearly a miss.
Yet, the structure with which the market topped is not indicative that the bull market structure off the March 2020 low has completed. But, it will likely take us several more weeks/months before the market makes it clear how we will be setting up to strike new all-time highs.
In the near term, 3620-60SPX is support in the market per my calculations. A break-down below that level will point us to the 3450/3500SPX region, from which a major bottom should develop. But, for now, as long as we hold the 3620SPX support, I am looking for a rally to develop over the coming weeks to take us north of 4200SPX. But, I will warn you that such rally will be quite volatile, as we have no “impulsive” structure which has clearly developed off the recent low.
I have not discussed metals in a very long time since there was nothing that I was seeing that would provide a high probability trade, especially in my two favorite trading vehicles – silver and GDX. But, as I write this article, I will note that I am seeing a bottoming structure develop which, when completed, has the potential to begin a very strong rally in the complex which can take us well into the 2023 time-frame, and potentially beyond.
With the market providing us with the rally I had wanted to see off the last support region I provided to you, the question we are facing is if a long-term bottom has finally been struck in the TLT. As it stands right now, until the market is able to strongly exceed the 121/122 resistance region, I see strong potential for one more lower low with an ideal target in the 105 region, but depending upon the structure of the decline, it can easily see an extension as deep as the 100 region.
Ultimately, for those that are looking at the TLT from a bigger picture, I am viewing this 100-109 region as a long-term support, from which we should be able to develop a long-term rally back over 150 over the coming year or two. And, a strong break-out through the 122 resistance region will be an initial indication that the rally to 150+ has begun in earnest.
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Also, I am going to be quite busy with travel during the summer, and will not be able to post public articles regularly. Moreover, when I do post, I may not leave the comments section open if I am unable to monitor it and respond to comments.